Saturday, March 04, 2006
Good intel ignored, bad intel pushed for war
Criticism of the Iraq war is mostly dismissed as hindsight, but recent reports illustrate that the President was told of what might go wrong -- what did go wrong -- but ignored the information, and actively deceived the nation about it.
The President and others continued to state conclusively that the tubes were to be used in WMDs, and never mentioned that experts in his administration did not support the claim.
Another summary from the NIE, delivered in early January 2003, stated that U.S. intelligence agencies unanimously agreed that Saddam was unlikely to attack the US except if "ongoing military operations risked the imminent demise of his regime" or if he intended to "extract revenge" for such an assault.
So intelligence believed Saddam posed no threat. The aluminum tubes, along with the Niger uranium, were known to be nothing. Yet the intel agencies were blamed when they turned out to be wrong! They were actually right, but the administration suppressed the dissent and beat the war drums.
And then...
"No one could have expected" has been a mantra for this administration, but in fact so much of this situation was foreseen, and should have been avoided. They were unshakable in their belief of what would happen, and refused to listen to better-informed experts. Why does anyone still grant them credibility?
Two highly classified intelligence reports delivered directly to President Bush before the Iraq war cast doubt on key public assertions made by the president, Vice President Cheney, and other administration officials as justifications for invading Iraq and toppling Saddam Hussein.A summary from the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), delivered to the President in October 2002, concluded that high-strength aluminum tubes procured by Iraq were "intended for conventional weapons," a view disagreeing with that of other intelligence agencies, including the CIA, which believed that the tubes were intended for a nuclear bomb.
The President and others continued to state conclusively that the tubes were to be used in WMDs, and never mentioned that experts in his administration did not support the claim.
Another summary from the NIE, delivered in early January 2003, stated that U.S. intelligence agencies unanimously agreed that Saddam was unlikely to attack the US except if "ongoing military operations risked the imminent demise of his regime" or if he intended to "extract revenge" for such an assault.
So intelligence believed Saddam posed no threat. The aluminum tubes, along with the Niger uranium, were known to be nothing. Yet the intel agencies were blamed when they turned out to be wrong! They were actually right, but the administration suppressed the dissent and beat the war drums.
And then...
U.S. intelligence agencies repeatedly warned the White House beginning more than two years ago that the insurgency in Iraq had deep local roots, was likely to worsen and could lead to civil war, according to former senior intelligence officials who helped craft the reports.The NIE report completed in October 2003 concluded that the Iraq insurgency was fueled by local conditions -- not by foreign terrorists -- and drew strength from deep grievances, including the very presence of US troops. As with the earlier case, the President, Vice President, Secretary of Defense and others continued to describe the insurgency as a containable threat, posed mainly by former supporters of Saddam Hussein, criminals and non-Iraqi terrorists, even as the U.S. intelligence community was warning otherwise.
"No one could have expected" has been a mantra for this administration, but in fact so much of this situation was foreseen, and should have been avoided. They were unshakable in their belief of what would happen, and refused to listen to better-informed experts. Why does anyone still grant them credibility?
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