Grotius

Israel and the U.S. authorized evacuation of most of their embassy personnel from Tashkent, the capital of Uzbekistan. The U.S. issued a warning saying it has information that Islamic terrorist groups were planning attacks, perhaps against Americans. Israel also received "a specific threat against an Israeli target by an extremist element." After the threat was evaluated, it was quickly decided to evacuate most of the diplomatic corps.

Three suicide bombers struck nearly simultaneously last July, one each at the Israeli Embassy, the U.S. Embassy and the Uzbek general prosecutor's office in Tashkent.

The Uzbek government also refused to renew the visas for 54 Peace Corps volunteers, who were forced to leave the country. Always an ominous sign when embassy personnel and aid workers clear out.

Experts at a forum hosted by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said that more violence in Uzbekistan is likely.

"What we have to do is start thinking about how we would cope with a significant rise in violence in this country. What would we do if Uzbekistan breaks out into a civil war?," said Robert Templer, Asia director for the Brussels-based International Crisis Group.

Michael Cromartie, of the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom, agreed that the former Soviet republic faces potentially destabilizing violence verging on civil war.

"In light of the man ruling the country, I would expect more violence." Washington may have to threaten to stop all aid and abandon its air base in order to bring about change, Cromartie said.

Templer warned that further violence could quickly spread to neighboring Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. "One very clear thing we know about contemporary conflicts is that they cross borders very, very rapidly," he said.

The U.S., meanwhile, continues negotiations on long-term use of a major military base in Uzbekistan. The talks have gone on behind the scenes for several months, but the violent crackdown in Andijan last month has put the administration in an awkward position. Human rights advocates charge that a new pact would undermine the goal of spreading democracy in the Islamic world.

U.S. Special Operations Forces, intelligence and reconnaissance missions, and air logistics flights all use the Karshi-Khanabad (K2) airfield in southeastern Uzbekistan, according to an official report on U.S. basing. "Access to this airfield is undeniably critical in supporting our combat operations" and humanitarian deliveries, said a Pentagon spokesman. The U.S. has paid $15 million to Uzbek authorities for use of the airfield since 2001.

Some U.S. officials and human rights advocates are concerned that U.S.-trained military units might have participated in the Andijan violence and are pressing the administration to investigate that possibility.

"Efforts to bring about democracy have hit a wall and are going backwards," said Sen. John McCain. "We have a military interest in maintaining our base in that country," but also in "restricting our relations with brutal governments." The Uzbek government "must understand" that the Andijan events "come with real consequences."

Further detail on Andijan and background on the conflict provided here.

Update, 6/7/05: Human Rights Watch issued the most complete report yet on what it terms the "massacre" in Andijan. Timeline, press report with map, and the complete report.